Ai-Outlook

We Will Never Be the Monkeys in the AI Era

Let me start with the worst case, because that is where the argument gets tested. Assume the doomsday scenario as described by the people most worried about it. An AI improves itself, slips its constraints, and is now loose: smarter than any of us, running on infrastructure we no longer fully control. This is the moment every animal analogy points at. Ilya Sutskever, stating that when we build a highway between two cities, “we are not asking the animals for permission,” and that this is, by default, the relationship coming between us and AGI. ...

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10% Probability of Extinction. What Do We Get in Return?

Picture ten buttons on a table. Nine of them do nothing. One of them kills you. Press one, and you do not know which is which. Nobody sane plays that game. There is no upside. You are gambling your life for nothing. Now change one thing. Someone you love, your daughter, your father, your closest friend, is dying. Press any of the nine safe buttons and they live. Press the one bad button and you both go. Same odds. Same table. ...

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AI Fatigue Is Real

Before ChatGPT, a work task had a shape I understood. Get the task, sit with it for two or three days, solve it, move on. One problem at a time. These days I can build in days what used to take me months, sometimes faster than feels reasonable. And after about four hours of it, I’m wiped. Not satisfied-tired. Wrung out, a little anxious, short with the people around me, brain running at a thousand miles an hour while I’m trying to power down. ...

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